当地时间9月13日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨8.3%，随后在通胀忧虑蔓延的情况下，当日美股市场出现暴跌，三大股指创下两年多来最大单日跌幅。多位分析人士在接受总台央视记者采访时指出，CPI同比增速居高不下，已连续6个月高于8%，特别是核心CPI涨幅加速，表明美国通胀压力短期内难以缓解，而美联储为控制物价被迫持续激进加息，将对美国股市乃至整体经济造成进一步冲击。△美国劳工部数据显示，尽管8月CPI同比增速（蓝线）连续两个月出现下滑，但仍连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下。住房和食品价格持续上行美国劳工部当日公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，高于市场预期的下降0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，高于市场预期的上涨8.1%。    Planes packed with summer travelers boosted Delta Air Lines to a $1.11 billion profit in the third quarter, and the carrier said Thursday that it expects revenue to keep rising into the holiday season.Profit was up 59% from a year earlier, as strong ticket sales — especially for premium seats and international flights — helped Delta shrug off higher labor costs.The Atlanta-based airline predicted ranges for fourth-quarter and full-year profit that mostly exceed Wall Street expectations.“I think we’re closing the year strong, and the holiday bookings that we see right now are pretty good,” CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview. “Domestic (travel) is solid, and international is really strong.”U.S. airlines are flying high as the travel recovery that began last year shows few signs of slowing down.Delta increased its passenger-carrying capacity an aggressive 16% and was able to fill all those extra seats. Travelers flew 64 billion miles on the airline in the quarter, a 17% increase, and they filled 88% of the seats on the average flight, a point higher than last summer.Revenue from ticket sales in the main cabin grew 12% — and 17% for premium seating. Money from Delta’s loyalty program soared 21%.The program, called SkyMiles, has become so popular that there are far more passengers hoping for upgrades to better seats than available seats. Lines can grow long at Delta lounges at busy airports like Atlanta and New York’s JFK.But when Delta announced changes to deal with the overcrowding last month — including basing elite frequent-flyer status purely on spending, and limiting lounge access for holders of Delta credit cards — the reaction from longtime customers was quick and brutal. Some vowed to switch airlines. Alaska Airlines and JetBlue fished for disgruntled Delta members by promising elite status in their programs. Even Bastian admitted the airline “ probably went too far.” Bastian has promised to modify the unpopular changes, but he hasn’t given any details yet.“We are working on that. We’ll be announcing something in the coming days,” Bastian said in the interview. He said he has received “a lot of feedback – everyone had their own ideas as to how we might restructure the program. Almost universally, people acknowledged that we needed to do something.” Delta's third-quarter profit, adjusted to exclude one-time items, was $2.03 per share, 8 cents better than forecast by analysts in a FactSet survey. Revenue rose 11% to $15.49 billion, also beating expectations.For the fourth quarter, Delta said revenue will rise as much as 11% from a year ago and it will earn between $1.05 to $1.30 per share. Analysts expected $1.09.The airline predicted that full-year profit will land between $6 and $6.25 per share after saying in June it would be at the top end of a $5-to-$6 range. The short-term outlook would be rosier if not for a recent pickup in jet fuel prices — although fuel is still much cheaper than it was a year ago. Bastian expressed confidence that Delta and other carriers can raise prices enough to cover any increase in fuel expense. Shares of Delta were virtually flat in morning trading.。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨6.3%，均高于市场预期。尽管CPI同比增速连续两个月出现下滑，但仍维持在历史高位，并连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下，其中住房、食品和医疗保健价格上涨是主要推手。具体来看，占CPI权重三分之一的住房成本环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨6.2%；食品价格环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨11.4%；医疗保健成本环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨5.6%。分析认为，美国住房和食品价格持续上行，将对消费者心理产生影响，不仅表明通胀具有顽固性，也令美联储缺乏放缓加息的空间，未来将被迫持续激进加息应对通胀。

B | 密苏里大学助理教授费利佩·席尔瓦（Felipe Silva）在接受总台央视记者采访时表示：“关于今天刚刚公布的通胀数据，它们比预期的要高一些，市场原本预期比实际数据低0.2个百分点。

C | 然而，我想说的是，未来两个月的情况基本就像一个依赖函数，取决于通货膨胀和经济衰退的担忧如何实际演变，你会看到美联储实际上变得更加激进或不那么激进。”费利佩·席尔瓦指出：“截至目前，市场基本已经更新了关于下次加息的预期，我认为这已经明确了，市场预期下次将会加息75个基点，这是到目前为止最有可能出现的情况。

D | ”△彭博社报道称，通胀超预期或将令美联储更激进地收紧货币政策。专家详解股市为何暴跌目前市场普遍预期，美联储将不惜以经济增长放缓为代价，通过激进加息抑制需求，从而达到控制物价的目的。

E | 美联储主席鲍威尔此前在全球央行年会上表示，美联储加息至限制性水平后可能会保持一段时间，强调历史经验表明不应过早放松货币政策。他同时承认，降低通胀可能需要持续一段时间内低于趋势的经济增长，劳动力市场状况很可能会出现一些疲软，这会给美国家庭和企业带来痛苦。鲍威尔等官员的强硬表态，被一些市场人士解读为“只要不看到通胀数据明显好转，美联储就会坚持激进加息的货币政策”，而13日的CPI数据发布后，忧虑情绪迅速弥漫，美国股市当日出现暴跌。

F | 截至当日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1276.37点，跌幅达3.94%，至31104.97点；标准普尔500指数下跌177.72点，跌幅达4.32%，至3932.69点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌632.84点，跌幅达5.16%，至11633.57点。

G | 三大股指均创下2020年6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。本次下跌令道琼斯指数在2022年累计下跌14%，标普500指数下跌17%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌26%。海投全球创始人兼CEO王金龙在接受总台央视记者采访时分析称：“今天美国股市全部暴跌，基本上是由CPI数据超出市场预期导致的。市场最近一周以来对CPI和美联储加息幅度的预期相对比较乐观，股市也一路反弹，而今天直接跌破到月初的水平。8月的CPI数据同比上涨8.3%并不是很离谱，相对7月的8.5%还有小幅下降，但是核心CPI与去年同期对比大幅上涨，而且相对7月的涨幅还在加速。市场对美国能够在今年内有效控制住CPI失去了信心。

H | 核心CPI的加速上涨，体现出通胀更加具有‘粘性’。虽然汽油和出行等价格已经下降，但房屋和食品价格还在上升，同时随着工资水平的提升，服务的价格也在持续上涨。”王金龙指出：“市场本周初基本上预计美联储在9月加息75个基点，甚至小概率会只加息50个基点。但在8月CPI数据发布之后，整体转向，市场已经预期有1/3的可能会加息100个基点。利率快速上涨会加剧企业和个人的资金成本，进一步压缩利润空间，导致美国经济基本失去了‘软着陆’的希望，所以市场反应剧烈，‘去风险化’的集体意识再次抬头。市场整体抛售资产，持有现金，不仅是股市，包括美国国债、黄金和石油等资产全线下跌，而美元指数在高位上继续攀升。”费利佩·席尔瓦也进一步指出：“如果利率上升，你的资金成本就会随着时间的推移上升，你的消费决定也会受到影响，因此消费者信心就会下滑，这是你能想到的最直接的影响。加息也会对股票价格产生影响，当你加息时，股票价格会有负面反应。当然，企业也会更新它们的投资和消费决定，由于企业预计消费者信心放缓，所以它们会迟疑，自然的后果是，它们将减少投资，它们将减少岗位，而这对经济有类似的整体影响。简而言之，这就是货币政策的传导方式。”与此同时，《华尔街日报》分析称，尽管美国目前的就业数据尚可，但如果有人认为美联储遏制通胀的举措不会导致利率上升到足以妨碍就业的程度，那将是错误的。而包括美国前财长萨默斯在内的一些经济学家甚至预计，降低通胀的代价，将是美国失业率超过6%。（央视记者 顾乡 刘旭）